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Updated 16 November 2004
Consequences (title)
Consequences Vol. 5, No. 1, 1999








Figure 3 An illustration of how a small change in the mean or average value of a meteorological variable can have a large effect on the expected number of extreme readings. UPPER FIGURE (black curve, A): the probability of different temperature readings when the mean temperature is 50°F. UPPER FIGURE (blue curve, B): the same, when the mean temperature rises 5°, to 55° F. The shape or spread of the bell-shaped pattern by which expected values are distributed on either side of the mean is the same in both cases. LOWER FIGURE: the corresponding changes in the probability of the temperature readings shown on the bottom scale. The solid blue curve (with scale at left) is the difference in probability of the readings shown on the bottom scale. The greatest difference is for temperatures about 10° above and below the mean value of 55°. The dashed blue curve (scale at right) is the percentage change in probability. Readings of 60 to 70°, for example, are expected roughly twice as often as before.


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